The Global Warming Forest

Most have heard the adage ‘can`t see the forest for the trees`. It is particularly fitting in the current global warming / climate change controversy. Simplistically, the expression means focusing on one condition, without looking at the overall background in which the condition resides. Strident controversy erupts regarding the role of atmospheric carbon and global warming. Protagonists of the man made (anthropogenic) carbon causation of global warming examine events of the past two-hundred years. Two hundred years covers several human lifetimes, but it is an insignificant period in the climate controversy1. Proponents of other theories extend observation to a thousand years. Even a millennia is trivial in a discussion of the earth`s climate.

Science has provided much information regarding the earth`s temperature history. This has been the fodder of climate change controversy. Few have attempted to look at the long-term history gleaned by science. Agonists tout the period advocating their favored hypothesis. How do hypotheses fare when placed in the perspective of extended time? Or, in terms of our adage, how does the tree relate to the forest?

Raw data from ice core samples are available to show earth`s temperature for at least 540 million years.

These data show that earth has had a cyclic pattern of temperature or climatic change during this entire span of half a billion years. Earth has been in a cooling phase for the last 100 million years2

Even with fluctuations, simple observation reveals that the earth has been consistently cooling for the past 12 MILLION years. Cooling was not uniform; it displayed a cyclical pattern.

The pattern has a periodicity of approximately 100,000 years. The periodicity is more pronounced in the data of the past five million years. [No significance is given to the increased amplitude as the researchers allow, “The true magnitude of the PETM is likely to be understated in this figure due to coarse sampling.”]

So, how do these temperature changes correlate with other findings such as ice thickness and CO2 concentrations?

Data are available and show the 100,000 cycles, allowing for the coarse sampling that is acknowledged by the researchers. Particular note should be given to the relationship of the current cycle to those of past cyclical peaks. They show that the current peak in temperature is LESS than temperature peaks of ALL of the past four (4) cycles (400,000+ years). Likewise, the volume of ice is consistent with past cycles.

Similarly, CO2 concentrations were comparable to past cycles until about 200 years ago. Over the past 200 years, CO2 concentrations have increased from about 280 parts per million (ppm) to the current level of 380 ppm (or from 0.000280 to 0.000380 = 0.028% to 0.038% of the atmosphere). This rise is referred to as the ‘hockey stick` of CO2 rise. The Wikipedia authors have attributed this rise to “The Industrial Revolution”, even though they point out, “The true magnitude

of the PETM is likely to be understated in this figure due to coarse sampling.” This means that no one can tell if there was a “hockey stick” rise associated with prior peaks. The coarse measurements do not examine small enough time increments for comparison to a few hundred years. Further, causal attribution of the CO2 rise to the Industrial Revolution is an assumption, not grounded in fact. How will this correlate with other scientific observations?

A question that begs asking is, ‘in previous cycles, which came first, the increase in temperature or the increase in CO2 ?` Our scientists tell us that in previous cycles, the rises in CO2 LAGGED the increase in temperature by 800 to 2600 years. So, for the past few million years, these cycles have occurred with the earth first becoming warmer and then CO2 rose.

Geologic observations may give an insight to global changes. Of interest is the fact that the magnetic north pole is rapidly shifting3 towards Siberia with a change pattern paralleling the CO2 ‘hockey stick`. The significance of diminishing magnetic strength is that the decreasing magnetic strength diminishes the protection against extra-terrestrial (predominately solar) radiation. As more solar radiation

Glaciers in Greenland have been in retreat since at least 1729, before the Industrial Revolution could have a significant impact on climate4.

The US National Geological service maintains a list of earthquakes for more than 4,000 years5. Their list shows more earthquakes in the past 200 years than in the preceding 3800 years. This parallels the CO2 ‘hockey stick`, as well.

While we don`t pay attention to them (out of sight, out of mind), there are literally thousands of active sub-oceanic volcanoes releasing lava, daily6. Naturally, the heat from that lava is dissipated into ocean waters. That means that the oceans are warming – at least in part - due to sub-oceanic volcanic activity.

What can astronomy tell us about our relationship to other planets? Earth is in a coplanar orbit with the other planets in our solar system7. They have similar gravitational influences; it is logical to presume that the other planets would also demonstrate a variation between circular and elliptical orbits, similar to that for earth.

NASA photographs suggest that Mars and Saturn are warming as well.

Are there other pertinent observations? Everyone laughs but bovine flatulence contributes about one-sixth (18%) of the greenhouse gasses emitted. That`s MORE than all transportation produced carbon emissions.

What about the amount of CO2 emitted from natural sources? Not only do decay processes contribute but also it`s estimated that thawing of the Siberian tundra releases as much as one hundred times more carbon than ALL of man made carbon emissions!8 Even a pro-anthropogenic publication (Time, April 2006) stated that man is responsible for 7 gigatons of emission but naturally occurring emissions account for 80 to 100 gigatons. So, even anthropogenic protagonists admit that man is only responsible for 6% or 7% of the emissions. Does man deserve 100% of the blame?

Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas9, responsible for more than three quarters (up to 85%) of the greenhouse effect. Science has demonstrated a synergistic relationship between CO2 and development of water vapor. The relationship mechanism has not been delineated.

The Tree or The Forest

Having delineated scientific observations, let`s attempt explaining the observations as independent events (the trees), or, alternatively, apply Ockham`s razor and describe a unifying explanation (the forest).

The physical explanation is that changes in angular momentum affect movement in the lithosphere as it glides on the supporting asthenosphere. Such movement is consistent with tectonic plate movement. As tectonic palates move, they allow release of heat and gases from the asthenosphere. Since the escapes occur at the ocean floors, they are not readily apparent to visual inspection. Thousands of oceanic volcanoes (commonly called a `Ring of Fire` in the Pacific basin) erupt daily. Their warming of the oceans undoubtedly affects global warming as the oceans serve to buffer temperature. [Geology tells us that the earth has a thin crust, called the lithosphere, which floats on a plastic, semi fluid, molten layer known as the asthenosphere. ]

One might even speculate that the sub-oceanic volcanic release of heat and gases is the reason that the earth has been COOLING for the past twelve million years. During the period that the earth`s crust is in motion, it is more porous. Oceans permeate the lithosphere, are warmed in the asthenosphere and the heat is percolated to the oceans. The oceans then warm, globally. When the crust is in a more stable period, there is less permeation and the oceans are no longer warmed, as much, from the core. Heat dissipates by radiation into space. The core, with a relatively stable lithosphere, is effectively sealed off and begins regenerating core heat. If the core cannot regenerate heat at a rate equal to or greater than the dissipation of heat, there is overall cooling as seen in the graphs. Obviously, this is not a complete explanation, as it does not clarify the 100 million year cycles of phanerozoic climate change.

The Lesson of the Forest

Sorry to include so much minutia. But, facts, not supposition, are necessary to understand the complex natural forces that affect us. The importance of ferreting an explanation of forest or tree is to gain an understanding of whether man is capable of altering the changes that are occurring, If so, we must change our lives, drastically. If not, we must strive to adapt rather than trying, futilely, to alter nature`s inevitable occurrences. It would be the height of arrogance and hubris for mankind to demand that earth adapt to man.

To fall for the demagoguery of man-made global warming is to waste the resources that we have and to impose a burden on society that will not produce the desired benefit. We should be good stewards and minimize our pollution. But, history has shown the dire predictions of doom are unfounded. From Malthus to Exxon Valdez, the doomsayers have been wrong. Proponents of anthropogenic climate change must be included in this group until such time as they can show, with a scientific probability, not a ‘consensus` of hypotheses, that a 100 million year history is inconsequential to our current climate. Our society, our lifestyles and even our children`s well being demand at least that much of us.

Yes, global warming is real. But, the forest says that it is a natural process and totally out of our control. As the lyrics of a song (who`ll stop the rain?) demonstrate, man is incapable of affecting natural climatic events, much less global occurrences. It`s only the hucksters trying to sell carbon credits who will benefit from the disruption of society, if we fall for their spiel. They have no evidence to validate their hypothesis, only hysteria. Some national and local governments have swallowed their spiel hook, line and sinker. In doing so, they abandoned reasoning and scientific investigation and become dupes of the carbon credit crowd.

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1 http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_michael__070429_misunderstanding_glo.htm Misunderstanding Global Warming: Alexander Cockburn versus Reality. Mike Byron, Ph.D..